Structural growth opportunities in the context of low growth in the automotive industry

Starting from the entire automobile industry, we analyze and forecast the market space of the new energy automobile industry from the top to the bottom. First of all, from the perspective of overall domestic car sales, after experiencing the overall car market slump in 2018 and 2019 (domestic car sales in 2018 and 2019 contracted by 4.2% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively) and the impact of the epidemic in early 2020, relying on cars to go to the countryside has After the support of the main policy, the overall domestic car sales will stabilize in 2020. Excluding the most serious stage of the epidemic in early 2020, the cumulative sales from April to December 2020 increased by 6.7% year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, benefiting from the low base caused by the epidemic in 2020, the cumulative sales in the first three months increased by nearly 77% year-on-year. However, the subsequent year-on-year growth is still difficult to sustain, and the cumulative sales from April to December 2021 fell by 5% year-on-year. The reason is that in addition to being dragged down by the overall economic environment, the marginal weakening of the effect of industry support policies under the background of a high base is also an important reason for the domestic auto market after a long period of high growth in the past.

In the first half of 2022, the severe impact of the epidemic caused domestic auto sales to suffer waterloo again. The stagnation of the production side and the wait-and-see of the consumer side led to a year-on-year decline of nearly 7% in auto sales in the first half of the year. Cumulative vehicle sales through May fell 12%. Among them, in April, when the epidemic peaked, domestic auto sales contracted by 47%/48% month-on-month/year-on-year. Looking back at the domestic auto sales data in the past few years, we believe that the overall domestic auto industry market has entered a mature low-growth stage at this stage, and partial structural growth will be the main theme in the future, tapping the consumption potential of rural areas, promoting auto exports and vigorously The development of new energy vehicles will be an important engine for the sustainable growth of subsequent vehicle sales.

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